As someone without access to The Numbers... I always wonder how much popular sentiment aligns with market perception. In this specific case, I wonder about game subscription services; years ago they were touted as the future and purely additive, and nowadays the sentiment seems a lot more dour. Is this reflected at all on the other side of the curtain? Is it something developers talk about? Is it even something you can track at all with the data you have?
Also you asked:
More generally, how do you feel these initiatives impacted the gaming landscape, and what do you make of their trajectory so far?
Anecdotally, games that are in Game Pass can expect to lose around 80% of its expected premium sales on Xbox. That’s the figure that gets thrown around. It’s less if it’s a big mainstream release, but generally… look at how low Hellblade 2 charted. Or where Indiana Jones came. Or even Starfield. Game Pass clearly hurt sales of those titles on Xbox.
But… if it’s a game on multiple platforms, it can be beneficial. That surge in players on one Xbox can have a strong impact on sales on PlayStation, for instance.
I am actually torn on subscription. I believe it can lead to lost revenue, and services like this make it harder for everyone else. Try being an indie game on Xbox right now that’s not on Game Pass…