Gaming: A mature industry

[J1M]

Assume that through a crash or another major event, or just the collectivist thinking often demonstrated by investors, that the gaming is no longer viewed as "for kids". There's an acceptance that the majority of gamers are at least 30 years old and the industry will eventually die with them just as the radio drama receded.

How would the industry change?
How would the products that are greenlit change?
Are different price points targeted? (Golf simulators are 1000x the cost of EA PGA Tour Golf)
Would something like flight sim hardware become standardized like the gamepad was?
What would the average developer look like if the medium can no longer effectively influence children?
Which genres would die or return from the ashes?
Would most releases be expansions for decades-old games?

[rusty_shackleford]

There would be more games that exist specifically to milk wealthy fans of niche hobbies, and cornering said market niches. Current existing examples would be Star Trek Online and Star Citizen, both of which target audiences that tend to be older and wealthy.

[TKVNC]

Only boomers play games anyway.

[enisey]

Assume that through a crash or another major event, or just the collectivist thinking often demonstrated by investors, that the gaming is no longer viewed as "for kids". There's an acceptance that the majority of gamers are at least 30 years old and the industry will eventually die with them just as the radio drama receded.

How would the industry change?
How would the products that are greenlit change?
Are different price points targeted? (Golf simulators are 1000x the cost of EA PGA Tour Golf)
Would something like flight sim hardware become standardized like the gamepad was?
What would the average developer look like if the medium can no longer effectively influence children?
Which genres would die or return from the ashes?
Would most releases be expansions for decades-old games?

Not to derail the discussion but I think you're ignoring the impact of AI.

Even before DLSS5 came to light, I had predicted AI painting over frames in real-time. If it happens the way I'm anticipating, you'd be able to mod visuals with a prompt. Think inserting yourself into a Skyrim that looks like a live action 80's Sword & Sorcery movie.

With visuals that easy, it will completely change dev priority. As it gets easier to make AAA slop on a whim, I think devs will need to focus on novel gameplay systems and/or story to be successful.

We're really heading into uncharted waters with AI. Dynamic NPCs and worlds that react perfectly to you while maintaining verisimilitude, whatever visual style you can imagine, live AI coding to create systems as needed... The most popular games could be basically engines that best enable player creativity, sort of like Roblox or GMOD.

[rusty_shackleford]

Assume that through a crash or another major event, or just the collectivist thinking often demonstrated by investors, that the gaming is no longer viewed as "for kids". There's an acceptance that the majority of gamers are at least 30 years old and the industry will eventually die with them just as the radio drama receded.

How would the industry change?
How would the products that are greenlit change?
Are different price points targeted? (Golf simulators are 1000x the cost of EA PGA Tour Golf)
Would something like flight sim hardware become standardized like the gamepad was?
What would the average developer look like if the medium can no longer effectively influence children?
Which genres would die or return from the ashes?
Would most releases be expansions for decades-old games?

Not to derail the discussion but I think you're ignoring the impact of AI.

Even before DLSS5 came to light, I had predicted AI painting over frames in real-time. If it happens the way I'm anticipating, you'd be able to mod visuals with a prompt. Think inserting yourself into a Skyrim that looks like a live action 80's Sword & Sorcery movie.

With visuals that easy, it will completely change dev priority. As it gets easier to make AAA slop on a whim, I think devs will need to focus on novel gameplay systems and/or story to be successful.

We're really heading into uncharted waters with AI. Dynamic NPCs and worlds that react perfectly to you while maintaining verisimilitude, whatever visual style you can imagine, live AI coding to create systems as needed... The most popular games could be basically engines that best enable player creativity, sort of like Roblox or GMOD.

wow, all of this sounds like a nightmare, thanks

[Stack of Turtles]

Assume that through a crash or another major event, or just the collectivist thinking often demonstrated by investors, that the gaming is no longer viewed as "for kids". There's an acceptance that the majority of gamers are at least 30 years old and the industry will eventually die with them just as the radio drama receded.

How would the industry change?
How would the products that are greenlit change?
Are different price points targeted? (Golf simulators are 1000x the cost of EA PGA Tour Golf)
Would something like flight sim hardware become standardized like the gamepad was?
What would the average developer look like if the medium can no longer effectively influence children?
Which genres would die or return from the ashes?
Would most releases be expansions for decades-old games?

Not to derail the discussion but I think you're ignoring the impact of AI.

Even before DLSS5 came to light, I had predicted AI painting over frames in real-time. If it happens the way I'm anticipating, you'd be able to mod visuals with a prompt. Think inserting yourself into a Skyrim that looks like a live action 80's Sword & Sorcery movie.

With visuals that easy, it will completely change dev priority. As it gets easier to make AAA slop on a whim, I think devs will need to focus on novel gameplay systems and/or story to be successful.

We're really heading into uncharted waters with AI. Dynamic NPCs and worlds that react perfectly to you while maintaining verisimilitude, whatever visual style you can imagine, live AI coding to create systems as needed... The most popular games could be basically engines that best enable player creativity, sort of like Roblox or GMOD.

Mathematically speaking, the amount of change you apply to an input with AI is proportional to the risks of both hallucination and inconsistency, and it's impossible to prevent that. So, this isn't going to work very well.

[rusty_shackleford]

Would most releases be expansions for decades-old games?

They should be doing this anyways. You can totally make multiple DLCs a year for Neverwinter Nights or Dragon Age: Origins with a lean, independent team of 5-8 developers.

[enisey]

Assume that through a crash or another major event, or just the collectivist thinking often demonstrated by investors, that the gaming is no longer viewed as "for kids". There's an acceptance that the majority of gamers are at least 30 years old and the industry will eventually die with them just as the radio drama receded.

How would the industry change?
How would the products that are greenlit change?
Are different price points targeted? (Golf simulators are 1000x the cost of EA PGA Tour Golf)
Would something like flight sim hardware become standardized like the gamepad was?
What would the average developer look like if the medium can no longer effectively influence children?
Which genres would die or return from the ashes?
Would most releases be expansions for decades-old games?

Not to derail the discussion but I think you're ignoring the impact of AI.

Even before DLSS5 came to light, I had predicted AI painting over frames in real-time. If it happens the way I'm anticipating, you'd be able to mod visuals with a prompt. Think inserting yourself into a Skyrim that looks like a live action 80's Sword & Sorcery movie.

With visuals that easy, it will completely change dev priority. As it gets easier to make AAA slop on a whim, I think devs will need to focus on novel gameplay systems and/or story to be successful.

We're really heading into uncharted waters with AI. Dynamic NPCs and worlds that react perfectly to you while maintaining verisimilitude, whatever visual style you can imagine, live AI coding to create systems as needed... The most popular games could be basically engines that best enable player creativity, sort of like Roblox or GMOD.

Mathematically speaking, the amount of change you apply to an input with AI is proportional to the risks of both hallucination and inconsistency, and it's impossible to prevent that. So, this isn't going to work very well.

Yes, but technology grows exponentially. AI is already improving itself, the singularity is coming. There will be a brief moment of this before we're all just killed or turned into human batteries like The Matrix.

[Stack of Turtles]

Not to derail the discussion but I think you're ignoring the impact of AI.

Even before DLSS5 came to light, I had predicted AI painting over frames in real-time. If it happens the way I'm anticipating, you'd be able to mod visuals with a prompt. Think inserting yourself into a Skyrim that looks like a live action 80's Sword & Sorcery movie.

With visuals that easy, it will completely change dev priority. As it gets easier to make AAA slop on a whim, I think devs will need to focus on novel gameplay systems and/or story to be successful.

We're really heading into uncharted waters with AI. Dynamic NPCs and worlds that react perfectly to you while maintaining verisimilitude, whatever visual style you can imagine, live AI coding to create systems as needed... The most popular games could be basically engines that best enable player creativity, sort of like Roblox or GMOD.

Mathematically speaking, the amount of change you apply to an input with AI is proportional to the risks of both hallucination and inconsistency, and it's impossible to prevent that. So, this isn't going to work very well.

Yes, but technology grows exponentially. AI is already improving itself, the singularity is coming. There will be a brief moment of this before we're all just killed or turned into human batteries like The Matrix.

Nothing in this world grows exponentially. You need to read about the logistic curve.

[J1M]

Assume that through a crash or another major event, or just the collectivist thinking often demonstrated by investors, that the gaming is no longer viewed as "for kids". There's an acceptance that the majority of gamers are at least 30 years old and the industry will eventually die with them just as the radio drama receded.

How would the industry change?
How would the products that are greenlit change?
Are different price points targeted? (Golf simulators are 1000x the cost of EA PGA Tour Golf)
Would something like flight sim hardware become standardized like the gamepad was?
What would the average developer look like if the medium can no longer effectively influence children?
Which genres would die or return from the ashes?
Would most releases be expansions for decades-old games?

Not to derail the discussion but I think you're ignoring the impact of AI.

Even before DLSS5 came to light, I had predicted AI painting over frames in real-time. If it happens the way I'm anticipating, you'd be able to mod visuals with a prompt. Think inserting yourself into a Skyrim that looks like a live action 80's Sword & Sorcery movie.

With visuals that easy, it will completely change dev priority. As it gets easier to make AAA slop on a whim, I think devs will need to focus on novel gameplay systems and/or story to be successful.

We're really heading into uncharted waters with AI. Dynamic NPCs and worlds that react perfectly to you while maintaining verisimilitude, whatever visual style you can imagine, live AI coding to create systems as needed... The most popular games could be basically engines that best enable player creativity, sort of like Roblox or GMOD.

The same predictions were made about priority shifting to gameplay and innovation once graphics improvements slowed down. Graphics peaked in 2014 and that didn't happen. Instead that development time and money went into making cash shops.

[rusty_shackleford]

Instead that development time and money went into making makework jobs for downwardly mobile leftist foids

ftfy

[The_Mask]

I think there is also to be mentioned that the price of hardware is slowly turning PC gaming back to its origins, which is something only wealthier people are going to access. The price of RAM and SSDs is getting to the point where not everybody can just buy a new PC.

I think the fat is about to be trimmed pretty drastically.

[Stack of Turtles]

I think there is also to be mentioned that the price of hardware is slowly turning PC gaming back to its origins, which is something only wealthier people are going to access. The price of RAM and SSDs is getting to the point where not everybody can just buy a new PC.

I think the fat is about to be trimmed pretty drastically.

Most people ALREADY don't buy PCs. They just have phones and, in the case of blacks, Xbox.

[loregamer]

Not to derail the discussion but I think you're ignoring the impact of AI.

Even before DLSS5 came to light, I had predicted AI painting over frames in real-time. If it happens the way I'm anticipating, you'd be able to mod visuals with a prompt. Think inserting yourself into a Skyrim that looks like a live action 80's Sword & Sorcery movie.

With visuals that easy, it will completely change dev priority. As it gets easier to make AAA slop on a whim, I think devs will need to focus on novel gameplay systems and/or story to be successful.

We're really heading into uncharted waters with AI. Dynamic NPCs and worlds that react perfectly to you while maintaining verisimilitude, whatever visual style you can imagine, live AI coding to create systems as needed... The most popular games could be basically engines that best enable player creativity, sort of like Roblox or GMOD.

I can't imagine good results from something like that because how would it even know how to keep a location visually consistent, or make an NPC look the same between jump cuts, locations, or angles? It'd be "painting" it constantly from new context, wouldn't it? And AI sucks when given too much context, so feeding it "This location/NPC should look like this" would make it even worse

I'd rather the visuals of a game be deliberate, not RNG

[J1M]

Not to derail the discussion but I think you're ignoring the impact of AI.

Even before DLSS5 came to light, I had predicted AI painting over frames in real-time. If it happens the way I'm anticipating, you'd be able to mod visuals with a prompt. Think inserting yourself into a Skyrim that looks like a live action 80's Sword & Sorcery movie.

With visuals that easy, it will completely change dev priority. As it gets easier to make AAA slop on a whim, I think devs will need to focus on novel gameplay systems and/or story to be successful.

We're really heading into uncharted waters with AI. Dynamic NPCs and worlds that react perfectly to you while maintaining verisimilitude, whatever visual style you can imagine, live AI coding to create systems as needed... The most popular games could be basically engines that best enable player creativity, sort of like Roblox or GMOD.

I can't imagine good results from something like that because how would it even know how to keep a location consistent, or make an NPC look the same between jump cuts or locations? It'd be "painting" it constantly from new context, wouldn't it? And AI sucks when given too much context, so feeding it "This location/NPC should look like this" would make it even worse

I'd rather the visuals of a game be deliberate, not RNG

Scene graph data could be used to ensure it always knew where the character was. I believe we will see a game with this as its primary selling feature at some point. Will probably be like catnip for normies at first. Kids can hang out with Mario and youth can play out their vicarious fantasies in NBA 2K career mode.

[enisey]

Mathematically speaking, the amount of change you apply to an input with AI is proportional to the risks of both hallucination and inconsistency, and it's impossible to prevent that. So, this isn't going to work very well.

Yes, but technology grows exponentially. AI is already improving itself, the singularity is coming. There will be a brief moment of this before we're all just killed or turned into human batteries like The Matrix.

Nothing in this world grows exponentially. You need to read about the logistic curve.

I skimmed through an article that was posted somewhere on this site, I think it's the same one you're referencing. I kind of agreed with it as I was reading, but then I remembered that the Will Smith eating spaghetti thing was only 3 years ago and it started feeling like a cope.

I'm not overly confident either way, but Unreal Engine did just release their MCP plugin for UE5, and while I don't think it's amazing, I think it will get more powerful, and I know for a fact executives are jizzing in their pants over the opportunity to hire less people.

[Stack of Turtles]

Yes, but technology grows exponentially. AI is already improving itself, the singularity is coming. There will be a brief moment of this before we're all just killed or turned into human batteries like The Matrix.

Nothing in this world grows exponentially. You need to read about the logistic curve.

I skimmed through an article that was posted somewhere on this site, I think it's the same one you're referencing. I kind of agreed with it as I was reading, but then I remembered that the Will Smith eating spaghetti thing was only 3 years ago and it started feeling like a cope.

I'm not overly confident either way, but Unreal Engine did just release their MCP plugin for UE5, and while I don't think it's amazing, I think it will get more powerful, and I know for a fact executives are jizzing in their pants over the opportunity to hire less people.

I'm not referencing any specific article. But I can tell you with complete confidence that there's no such thing as "the singularity". Right now, globally, we're closer to reverting to pre-industrial technology because of failing to maintain electrical infrastructure than we are to an explosion in AI capabilities.
There are basic physical tradeoffs that put absolute limits on the growth of all technology. There have always also been people who were overly optimistic about the future, in every era. People once expected space travel to grow exponentially, and we'd have already been colonizing distant star systems for decades by now.

[Val the Moofia Boss]

Old model was having your price ceiling set at a $60 box and thus trying to sell boxes to as many people as possible. That is very difficult to achieve today where there is no shared popular culture anymore and everyone is sundered into their own microniches.

We are already seeing this. The trend is to try to extract more out of individual customers in your fandom by offering them something to throw money at. On the lower end, Trails fans buying $700 of Trails games, or WoW players who have been playing for 10+ years having paid at least $2,100 in subscription fees and expansion purchases. Or to the extreme, certain people buying $48,000 Star Citizen ships, or dumping $32,000 to max out Castorice in Honkai Star Rail, or buying a $50,000 boat skin in Where Winds Meet. Those few wealthy customers can make up for a lot of lower end customers.

[Cipher]

Nothing in this world grows exponentially. You need to read about the logistic curve.

I skimmed through an article that was posted somewhere on this site, I think it's the same one you're referencing. I kind of agreed with it as I was reading, but then I remembered that the Will Smith eating spaghetti thing was only 3 years ago and it started feeling like a cope.

I'm not overly confident either way, but Unreal Engine did just release their MCP plugin for UE5, and while I don't think it's amazing, I think it will get more powerful, and I know for a fact executives are jizzing in their pants over the opportunity to hire less people.

I'm not referencing any specific article. But I can tell you with complete confidence that there's no such thing as "the singularity". Right now, globally, we're closer to reverting to pre-industrial technology because of failing to maintain electrical infrastructure than we are to an explosion in AI capabilities.
There are basic physical tradeoffs that put absolute limits on the growth of all technology. There have always also been people who were overly optimistic about the future, in every era. People once expected space travel to grow exponentially, and we'd have already been colonizing distant star systems for decades by now.

Remember flying cars by the year 2000?

Yeah, that was almost three decades ago. Not even a hint of that happening any time soon.

[Havitner]

Remember flying cars by the year 2000?

Yeah, that was almost three decades ago. Not even a hint of that happening any time soon.

03_20_RogueAviationWEB-7-510375449.jpg

[Cipher]

Remember flying cars by the year 2000?

Yeah, that was almost three decades ago. Not even a hint of that happening any time soon.

03_20_RogueAviationWEB-7-510375449.jpg

Oh, right. Thanks for reminding me, I love seeing them on the streets all the time, specially the "helopool" lane. Can you believe some people actually use blow up dolls to fake having passengers so they can use it?

Despicable.

[anvi]

I think the main thing lacking is teams of high tech gamer geek types who know current games and want to make something far bigger and better. That's how we got the 90s classics. They would find ways to subvert limitations in gaming due to hardware or game design. And they knew how to think big and make it a reality. I think everyone forgot how to think big in gaming.

[Stack of Turtles]

Assume that through a crash or another major event, or just the collectivist thinking often demonstrated by investors, that the gaming is no longer viewed as "for kids". There's an acceptance that the majority of gamers are at least 30 years old and the industry will eventually die with them just as the radio drama receded.

How would the industry change?
How would the products that are greenlit change?
Are different price points targeted? (Golf simulators are 1000x the cost of EA PGA Tour Golf)
Would something like flight sim hardware become standardized like the gamepad was?
What would the average developer look like if the medium can no longer effectively influence children?
Which genres would die or return from the ashes?
Would most releases be expansions for decades-old games?

Anyway, since you asked, I think it would be worse. I particularly found your fifth point funny because it's not like ****** devs are doing it to influence children at all.

[rusty_shackleford]

I skimmed through an article that was posted somewhere on this site, I think it's the same one you're referencing. I kind of agreed with it as I was reading, but then I remembered that the Will Smith eating spaghetti thing was only 3 years ago and it started feeling like a cope.

I'm not overly confident either way, but Unreal Engine did just release their MCP plugin for UE5, and while I don't think it's amazing, I think it will get more powerful, and I know for a fact executives are jizzing in their pants over the opportunity to hire less people.

I'm not referencing any specific article. But I can tell you with complete confidence that there's no such thing as "the singularity". Right now, globally, we're closer to reverting to pre-industrial technology because of failing to maintain electrical infrastructure than we are to an explosion in AI capabilities.
There are basic physical tradeoffs that put absolute limits on the growth of all technology. There have always also been people who were overly optimistic about the future, in every era. People once expected space travel to grow exponentially, and we'd have already been colonizing distant star systems for decades by now.

Remember flying cars by the year 2000?

Yeah, that was almost three decades ago. Not even a hint of that happening any time soon.

We don't have flying cars for the same reason we wouldn't have cars if they were introduced now.
And that would be a good thing. I don't trust the average person with a two ton metal box going 60 mph, let alone the lower half.

[Cipher]

I'm not referencing any specific article. But I can tell you with complete confidence that there's no such thing as "the singularity". Right now, globally, we're closer to reverting to pre-industrial technology because of failing to maintain electrical infrastructure than we are to an explosion in AI capabilities.
There are basic physical tradeoffs that put absolute limits on the growth of all technology. There have always also been people who were overly optimistic about the future, in every era. People once expected space travel to grow exponentially, and we'd have already been colonizing distant star systems for decades by now.

Remember flying cars by the year 2000?

Yeah, that was almost three decades ago. Not even a hint of that happening any time soon.

We don't have flying cars for the same reason we wouldn't have cars if they were introduced now.
And that would be a good thing. I don't trust the average person with a two ton metal box going 60 mph, let alone the lower half.

I was just pointing out an example of something Stack of Turtles said related to how "there have always also been people who were overly optimistic about the future".

[rusty_shackleford]

Remember flying cars by the year 2000?

Yeah, that was almost three decades ago. Not even a hint of that happening any time soon.

We don't have flying cars for the same reason we wouldn't have cars if they were introduced now.
And that would be a good thing. I don't trust the average person with a two ton metal box going 60 mph, let alone the lower half.

I was just pointing out an example of something Stack of Turtles said related to how "there have always also been people who were overly optimistic about the future".

I am optimistic about the future (we will stop most people from being allowed to drive a murder machine)

[Cipher]

We don't have flying cars for the same reason we wouldn't have cars if they were introduced now.
And that would be a good thing. I don't trust the average person with a two ton metal box going 60 mph, let alone the lower half.

I was just pointing out an example of something Stack of Turtles said related to how "there have always also been people who were overly optimistic about the future".

I am optimistic about the future (we will stop most people from being allowed to drive a murder machine)

First, we need to make sure that brownoids, specially those of the sand ****** and street shitter variety, enter the country. Then, we must exterminate the current pests that got in already. Once that is done, we can figure out limiting access to motorized vehicles to the remaining White population.

[Tweed]

The most popular games could be basically engines that best enable player creativity

Bethesda already has a major head start there.

[rusty_shackleford]

I don't want "player creativity", screw everyone who made sandboxes popular. Sandboxes suck.
Paying money to make your own fun is stupid

[Tweed]

I don't want "player creativity", screw everyone who made sandboxes popular. Sandboxes suck.
Paying money to make your own fun is stupid

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