Xenich wrote: ↑
March 29th, 2024, 13:39
That is naïve. History alone shows that empires rise and fall and the thinking that one power can never replace an initial power is often the reason why that initial power eventually collapses.
Problem here is that neither China nor Russia are in a position to exploit America's waning grip on the world.
Russia is being ground down in Ukraine and will require decades to recover, even if they end up victorious. And even if we ignore that, their demographic situation is catastrophic.
China, meanwhile, has a very narrow window of opportunity to try and seize Taiwan militarily, past which all their accumulating problems - gender imbalances, aging population, housing bubble, crumbling infrastructure, declining manufacturing power, plummeting international respect - will end catching up with them and lead to the usual Chinese historical pattern.
I don't have a crystal ball, but I can't really see any major power of today having the necessary momentum to replace the US as the sole superpower. What is more likely to happen is that we will return to a pre-WW2 power structure, where these various countries attempt to carve their own (largely regional) spheres of influence.